PIM(P)

The summer is long gone – now it’s back to work and school. Monday we had the introduction to our courses this semester and it turns out that we have to turn a paper in by the end of October, and that this paper serves as an exam….dreary me. Oh well. It’s probably not any worse than macroeconomics or commerce legislation that I survived last year, so probably it’s going to work out just fine.

The course for this semester is called PIM(P?) a abbreviation to Problem identification, Information theory and Modeling. Quite honestly I think it’s going to be fine fiddling with lots of data and then use a variety of applications to get hold of your information flow, in order to produce a model that fits like a glove to the specific task. On the other hand I thought that I was done with regression analysis etc. but no.

....so no more going out until June next year, instead I’ll use my non-CBS time on my Cannondale – more of that at a later time.

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Who will be the next power; BRIC? EU? Santa Clause?

Currently we’re experiencing a financial crisis that nobody has been able to fully comprehend yet. This post isn’t related to what caused the problems (to low interests rates from the federal banks, derivate debt products, subprime mortgage etc.) but rather a speculation of what is next.

In my opinion Fareed Zaakarias book “The Post American World” is highly recommendable on this subject, but he fails to see the real issue here. In the sixth chapter of the book he claims that the main (or at least one of the main reasons) the American dominant era is coming to an end, is the open-ended engagement in Iraq (and Afghanistan) and this is costing the US its freedom of maneuverability. Now it’s important to remember that this work was finalized by the end of 2007 and published in May 2008 i.e. several months before the financial crises really caught on in September 2008. Rather than being the military evolvement that broke/drained the treasury of the US it was (is?) the financial crisis. After this crises first became a world market event governments, including The congress and The White House, around the world have poured gazillions of cash (€£$) into public spending, in order to keep the unemployment rate constant, or at least avoid that it exploded, but sometime soon the governments are going to run out of cash. When this happens then we’ll have the collapse, since consumers still are holding back on their private spending thus private company’s cannot grow their enterprise and we’ll eventually get a long time rescission, unless…..

Fareed Zaakarias assumes that the 21^st century will belong to the newcomers, or at least that the US will have to consult with other states, Brazil, Russia, India, China etc. and act multilaterally rather than unilaterally. Say for moment that we accept the thesis above, and expect the US to run out of cash it can throw into government spending programs by mid 2010. Now the US is hamstrung by its debt, especially to China, and even China on the other hand will have no interest what so ever in forcing the US to repay its loan prior to schedule due to risk of having to deal with a hostile President and/or Congress, and what might be.

One of the key factors to the non-western economical growth over the last 2 decades has been (is) the access to a sort of stable energy supply (oil, gas etc.), the reality that Russia wasn’t a factor, the only superpower left was the US and access to loans with exceptionally low interest rates. Now all of this is changing rapidly. Russia is resurgent, or tough only due to the massive demand for Oil and Gas thus trying to regain its previous super-power status, due to demands especially in China and India energy prices will rice. The possibility to be authorized for a low interest loan is unlikely, so this is where the EU should make its case. I won’t for a second argue that governments should direct research into specific areas but I’d like to see an overall effort to reduce the dependence of fossil energy inside the EU by say 50 % over the next generation i.e. 30 years. What will this accomplish? Most likely universities & business schools in partnerships or while competing with existing companies, will improve and re-think how we think of energy. The BRIC countries have to experiencing the same learning curve that have been creeping up on the west over the next generation, and then the energy alternatives are ready for mass distribution.

Devil’s advocate:

Won’t the non-western countries develop and discover the above themselves? Probably not. One main advantage kept by higher learning institutes in the west, is that when students enrolls on courses they have a sense of critique to the established consensus, whether it’s nature science, economics, philosophy etc. they want to challenge the sitting establishment and somehow I don’t think that’s the way to achieve a meaningful relationship with the rulers for example in China? But I might be mistaken…..

We have enough.

Most of the citizens in Western Europe have a home, a flat, either a rented or an owned. Most families have a small house, a terraced house or larger flat. Their kids go to school the majority of them can get meaningful employment. They have either tax paid health and medi care or through an insurance. I know that there are some areas where thing can get better – there always will be, but shouldn’t we, the west, be able to say that we did something when the end of history and the last man arrived (Fukuyama) rather than just see the western lifestyle burn in the fire of decadence of massive over consumption?

I hope that this crisis will act as a much needed wakeup call to the European Union whom I think and hope will seize the moment an become a world power.

……just some random thoughts from the balcony this lovely summer night.

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Un sublime boisson

Friday night I had the pleasure to host a dinner with three friends and during dinner we enjoyed 4 different, yet magnificent champagnes:

1.) Mumm, brand-brand-brand, but a fabulous warm-up.
2.) Bollinger, 007 's choice - need one say more?
3.) Taittinger, personal long time favourite.
4.) Delamotte, made of non-Vintage Salon grapes - a bargain!

All four were extremely rich in their flavour and bouquet, but evaluated against each other the four of us voted the Taittinger to be the best. Full bodied, with fine tones of fruit this was a perfect match to to the meal. The other had their strengths and weaknesses but it must be noted that the Bollinger had the most elegant edge.

But what's all the fuss about one might ask? Well.....I have at least 24 months left (summer 2011) where I don't quite have the time to be social (due to study at CBS, see elsewhere) hence lacing the time to host of dinners 'gettogethers' etc., and instead of collecting (red)wine for non occurring events, one might consider to collect champagne instead.
Fore sure it's more expensive but on the other hand - it might be more of a experince? What do I know....but I think this is the way things are changing, so stay tuned for more bozo-reviews!

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Old friends

Saturday I went to Copenhagen to visit a friend of mine I’ve known close to 25 years now. I haven’t seen him in a while because he’s been under a lot of stress due to a depression – for which he is in medical treatment for.

Once again I was shocked to se how a depression changes a person, especially one whom you know quite well. Just the idea of answering the phone or do the dishes seem to be a Sisyphus task in their view. The worst part tough is that they feel guilt towards you because they feel that they neglect you, and no matter how many times you tell them “its al right” is fails to penetrate into their minds.

Why should this be interesting one might argue? Well in Denmark to a large extend I believe people whom suffer form a depression is considered to be weak of mind, but in my humble opinion this is rubbish. Everybody can develop a depression for various reasons and if you know anybody; family, friends or colleagues whom suffer from this try not to be to harsh to them.

All one really can do is to be understanding and supportive and help them in any way possible.

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Done with theoretic statistic(!)

Currently I’m studying for a bachelor degree in economics at Copenhagen Business School (http://www.cbs.dk) and today I passed my theoretic statistic exam – though only earning a C I’m still quite pleased. No more regression models, T-test and hypotheses talk!

And FCK beat Viborg FF 3-0 in the Danish premium soccer league – all in all a pretty nice day.

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Why ZeuSueZ?

A long time, 10 years or so, I played a game called Diablo. To make a long (and uninteresting) story short, I had to choose a name for my character in this game. Surely I cannot remember why I choose this name, but at the time it seemed cool and it kind of stuck to me. Now I use is as my online alias instead of *yourname_randomnumber_##!!” It’s more easy to remember (-:

Therefore: ZeuSueZ

PS. I’ve just re-activated this blog and hopefully I’ll be more productive in the future.

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New television

Finally - I've bought a TV, hallelujah this rox! 32" TFT.....now I lived in my apartment for over a year where I had chosen not to have a TV, due to the fact that the TV I owned, was a miserably 15 years old 14" Sanyo, but now that 24 started on season 4, I had to get a TV.

It also works as my monitor on my desktop - that’s something you without doubt becomes addicted to!

....so I watched the first 2 episodes of 24, and it - surprisingly - seems to have the same action packed storyline as the previous 3 seasons.

Btw - people whom attend a sale in a major mall and a like, act like lemmings - JESUS CHRIST, if anybody have seen "Finding Nemo" you might remember the Pigeons: "Mine? Mine? Mine?!!".....get a life - just because you save 10, 25 or 50 USD you should try to control your temper.

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Welcome to my blog

Hi everyone,

Some time ago I've decided to become a blocker......erhm....blogger, mostly because it would be like a online diary to myself, thoughts, ideas and so on.

So here we are at the very beginning of the year 2006, 1.1 doesn’t count for a day - it's just a limbo where you resituate yourself after New Years Eve. I've just ended 10 days of Christmas holiday, where I enjoyed lots of snow here in Copenhagen, and had the time do take care of some unfinished business in my apartment.

.....and at about 3 am, I've had the pleasure of re-living my new year morning, as one of my friends had the fine(!!) idea, of filming me while dancing to "Rickey Martin - Maria".....GREAT!

Happy New year everybody.